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Significance
Economically, Iran is struggling to meet domestic needs and also support its Axis of Resistance partners. This bears on internal debates as to whether the best course now is to seek negotiations on the nuclear programme to win some breathing space, or continue resistance.
Impacts
In the short term, foreign policy will focus on gaining regional support to help stop any potential military strikes by Israel.
The new government in Syria will maintain its distance from Tehran at present.
Europe will provide opportunities for strengthening much-needed commercial ties if nuclear activities are de-escalated.
If Khamenei dies, there is a low-likelihood possibility that the IRGC might favour constitutional change in order to boost the economy.
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2025
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