... while maintaining and exploiting apathy among the broader electorate. Impacts Belarus is highly unlikely to join the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Minsk will seek to forge closer ties with China, principally to promote greater trade and investment links. The opposition in exile will struggle...

... to import large volumes of microchips from Belarus and China. The defence industry can access sufficiently advanced chips to sustain military production. The limited availability of high-end chips could hamper Russia’s AI ambitions. economy industry international relations politics artificial...

... its international trade prospects and leverage its position for political gains. Impacts Belarus's association with BRICS might encourage smaller countries to cooperate with the group. Russia will deploy short- and intermediate-range nuclear missiles on Belarusian territory but retain full...

... with Russia will have limits - June 28, 2024). Russia RUCIS Algeria Argentina Bangladesh Belarus Brazil China Ethiopia France Ghana Guinea Hungary India Indonesia Kazakhstan Kenya Niger Nigeria Paraguay Rwanda South Africa South Korea Tunisia Uganda Uzbekistan Vietnam Zambia...

... partner capable of replacing the West as a supplier of these goods. Impacts Russian domestic production of microelectronics and machine tools will grow but at a slower rate than demand. Belarus will remain a key supplier of microelectronics to Russia. China and Russia will actively use new...

... or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites. 2024 Indonesia AP Russia APEC Armenia ASEAN Belarus Brazil China Europe G20 Israel Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan OECD Peru United Nations United States South-east Asia Putin promised Prabowo...

... and Lithuania may become more cautious in accepting new political refugees from Belarus to reduce the potential for unrest. © Oxford Analytica 2024. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social developments or (where stated) other matters. It does...

... or recommendations that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites. 2024 Poland Germany EUR Belarus Czech Republic Switzerland POLAND/GERMANY...

... enterprises. Impacts Belarus will seek to expand trade relationships with countries of the Global South. China will remain a high-priority market for Belarusian exporters to replace waning Russian demand. The authorities will likely resort to monetary expansion to boost output, which will cause...

..., including Russia and Belarus, allowing their nationals to stay in Hungary as workers for a two-year period with reduced security vetting. Brussels is concerned about the decision potentially violating sanctions and posing espionage risks to the Schengen free-movement area. Pinter responded...

...Oxford Analytica Significance Moscow’s influence over Belarus has grown stronger since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, when part of Russia’s invasion force entered from Belarus. The latest iteration of Minsk’s military doctrine ensures Belarus will move closer to complete...

... or recommendations that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites. 2024 Lithuania EUR Germany Belarus NATO Russia international relations...

... that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites. 2024 Russia INT RUCIS Belarus Ukraine United States politics social espionage...

...) and Belarus (2024). On July 12, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that Turkey, a NATO member, was planning to upgrade its observer status in the SCO to full membership (see TURKEY: Ankara will seek to be the world's mediator - July 4, 2024). The SCO summit in Astana in early July adopted more...

... are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites. 2024 South Korea China AP Belarus North Korea Russia SOUTH KOREA/CHINA international relations defence foreign investment foreign policy...

... or cast in Belarus, China, Iran or Russia will be subject to a 10% tariff. The measures primarily target China, which has increased exports to Mexico substantially in recent years, compounding suspicions that Mexico is being used as a back door to the US market.The new measures should help to protect...

... not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites. 2024 Eastern Europe EUR Baltic states Belarus Estonia Latvia Lithuania Poland Russia EU NATO Ukraine international relations politics border conflict defence...

...Oxford Analytica Significance Belarus is developing a dependence on Chinese imports, especially for high-tech consumer and investment goods, to complement its reliance on Russia for energy. It cannot expand exports to China at the same rate and the rupture in Western ties has reduced its value...

...Oxford Analytica Headline CHINA/BELARUS: Drills will solidify Ukraine stance © Oxford Analytica 2024. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social developments or (where stated) other matters. It does not contain advice...

... the presidential elections in 2025, when it hopes to replace Duda. Until then, the exclusive focus on prosecuting opposition politicians may raise concerns of bias and selective justice, undermining citizens’ trust in the judiciary. Poland EUR Belarus EU Russia politics social constitution...