Performance and Pay in Professional Football: The Roles of Risky Effort and Injuries for Quarterbacks

Using games missed by starting QBs due to injury and diff-in-diff we estimate the productivity of starting QBs. Triple differences then provide the productivity difference between Pro Bowlers and average starters. NFL overtime rules provide estimates of quarterbacks’ marginal revenue. The number of times a team wins the OT coin flip is an instrument to estimate the effect of a win on revenue. Finally, LAD estimation on the sample of starting QBs yields the premium paid to Pro Bowlers. Our key results are that Pro Bowl QBs generate 3.65 points per game (58.4 points per season) more than an average starter, a win is worth $6.4 million to $7.0 million in same-year revenue, the MRP for Pro Bowl QBs is $10.2 million, and the productivity premium paid to Pro Bowl QBs is $3.37 million.