Application of Systems Analysis Techniques to Vulnerability Studies of Complex Installations

Vulnerability analysis provides an assessment of the likelihood of system failure in a man‐made hostile environment, involving sabotage, security compromise and combat damage. The fault‐tree approach proved most useful as many obscure but significant failure modes surfaced as a result of the step‐by‐step logic involved. Analysis tools were applied to the problems of nuclear reactor sabotage, space shuttle and combat system vulnerability. An increased qualitative understanding of system vulnerabilities, the effectiveness of counter‐measures and the ranking of scenarios by their attractiveness to saboteurs or other adversaries were the chief results of the work.