Investigating the hydrological implications of atmospheric fluctuations and wildfire disturbances in a mountainous terrain

This research investigates the hydrological effects of climate change on the Amu Darya river basin with respect to uncertainties, runoff fluctuations, and altered flow regimes. Applying the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a semi-distributed hydrological model, we explored climate-driven changes by simulating hydrographs and analysing water balance. Global Climate Models for several Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios were used to simulate future climate conditions, which were incorporated into SWAT for impact analysis. Model calibration and validation were done using SWAT Calibration and Uncertainty Programme (SUFI-2 algorithm) with observed stream flow data. Findings show substantial changes in water availability, seasonal discharge patterns, and extreme flow events, underpinned by increasing temperatures and changed precipitation regimes. Higher uncertainty in climate predictions has a profound impact on hydrological responses, emphasising the importance of probabilistic methods in water resource planning. Findings highlight the importance of adaptive water management strategies, such as integrated watershed management and transboundary coordination, to counteract the impacts of climate change. This research shows the capability of SWAT in describing hydrological responses and uncertainties, and it is of great value to policymakers and stakeholders in sustainable water resource planning for the Amu Darya river basin.