Supply chain resilience in China’s construction industry: spatiotemporal trends and forecast

Construction industrialisation is regarded as a core pathway to improve construction efficiency and reduce resource consumption amid the global urbanisation. However, existing research has verified that the instability of its supply chain system hinders the sustainable development of cities. Firstly, this study established an indicator system to scientifically evaluate the resilience level of the construction industrialisation supply chain (CISCR). Secondly, a dynamic evaluation and analysis of CISCR of 35 large and medium-sized cities in China from 2015 to 2024 was conducted. The results show that (1) CISCR is on the rise, but there exists unbalanced and gradient distribution characteristics among regions. (2) Based on the evaluation of the cloud model of 35 cities from 2015 to 2024, China’s CISCR has steadily improved from a low resilience to a medium resilience level, showing a trend of developing towards high resilience. (3) According to the Monte Carlo simulation prediction (2025–2034), China’s CISCR will increase in a stepwise manner and enter a bottleneck period in 2031. Finally, differentiated improvement strategies were proposed for cities with different grades of CISCR, which can provide specific action guidelines for policymakers to promote the sustainable development of China’s construction industrialisation.