Decision Making under Uncertainty: In Defence of Shackle

In a series of books beginning in 1949 with Expectation in Economics, G.L.S. Shackle has analysed business decisions made under conditions of uncertainty (see Shackle, 1949,1955,1961,1970). In these he rejects the orthodox, probability‐based, approach of expected utility theory and outlines his own “model” of the decision process. This “model” is outlined in the next section. A number of criticisms which have been made of the Shackle theory are discussed in the third section together with responses which seek to preserve the underlying spirit of Professor Shackle's approach. The fourth section examines the relative merits of the orthodox mode of analysis and that of Professor Shackle as rationalisations of the judicial standard of negligence used in England and the United States.