Construction project delivery cloud decision-support model

For construction clients, the presence of uncertain information inhibits their ability to choose correctly among project delivery methods because uncertainties maximise the risk associated with the choice. Also, the process of forming an opinion and making a decision contains uncertainty. Fuzzy uncertainties arise because of imprecision in the estimation of the relative importance of criteria and the weighting of each delivery method on any criterion by a decision maker. Random uncertainties stem from the variance of these imprecisions. Presently, the modelling of project delivery decisions accounts for fuzziness, but there is no account of randomness. Cloud theory, which is an infusion of fuzzy set theory with probability theory and which uses a ‘bell-shaped’ membership function, is used to order decision makers’ preferences while incorporating both fuzzy and random uncertainties in project delivery selection. An investigation of a student recreational facility and the sensitivity of criteria associated with the case study revealed that the proposed infusion improves certainty in the derived outcome. The application of cloud theory provides the opportunity to simplify and structure decisions and improves the decision-making quality where uncertainty exists. This formulation of project delivery selection reduces the gap that exists between procurement practice and theory.