Is Marcos vulnerable? Analysis of regime stability in the Philippines

The following report on political risk in the Phillippines is an abbreviated version of a detailed study. The full report presents the theoretical underpinnings for the model, as well as a detailed rationale for all measurement decisions. The model's estimate of regime stability prior to and following the Aquino assassination has been borne out by subsequent events. While increasing his vulnerability somewhat, the assassination has not reduced Marcos' effective power to a level where regime stability is threatened. The report is distributed by Booz Allen & Hamilton, Bethesda, Maryland, to its political risk group clients.