This study aims to challenge the fundamental assumption that high-performing employees are more loyal, revealing why traditional retention strategies may be failing and what HR leaders should do instead.
The authors analyzed 11,470 employees across two major data sets using survival analysis – a powerful technique that predicts not just who will leave, but when they’re most likely to go. This approach moves beyond simple yes/no predictions to provide timing insights crucial for proactive retention.
High performers leave at exactly the same rate as average performers. The biggest predictor of employee departure is not performance – it is overtime work, which increases turnover risk by 242%. Single employees and frequent business travellers also show dramatically higher attrition rates.
HR leaders should redirect retention budgets from performance-based bonuses to work-life balance initiatives. Companies implementing these findings could save millions in turnover costs while improving employee satisfaction.
This is the first large-scale study to definitively prove the “performance paradox” and provide HR professionals with a practical roadmap for implementing survival analysis in their retention strategies.
