To explore the future of the Internet in 2025, the authors participated in a collaborative research and scenario development project between Cisco, a global leader in Internet architecture and the scenario consultancy GBN, a member of the Monitor Group. The Internet's shape 15 years from now and the path it takes to get there are uncertain and unpredictable, hence the need for scenarios.
To help explore possible futures of the Internet in 2025, researchers from Global Business Network and Cisco first identified a set of premises that provided a foundation for all the scenarios. Then they identified key drivers of change and synthesized them into three “axes of uncertainty.”
Finally, from the many plausible scenarios, they selected four to develop in depth.
These scenarios can help decision‐makers in corporations directly involved in the business of the Internet and national leaders and policymakers perceive emerging patterns, detect big risks or opportunities in advance, and rehearse ways of operating in the different possible future environments.
The four scenarios are: Fluid Frontiers: this is a world in which the Internet becomes pervasive; Insecure Growth: this is a world in which users – individuals and business alike – are scared away from intensive reliance on the Internet; Short of the Promise: this is a frugal world in which prolonged economic stagnation in many countries takes its toll on the spread of the Internet; and Bursting at the Seams: this is a world in which the Internet becomes a victim of its own success.
