This study aims to advance a conditional theory of organisational path dependence by examining why firms starting from broadly similar positions may follow sharply divergent strategic trajectories over time. It argues that path dependence does not emerge automatically through reinforcing mechanisms alone, but depends on the degree of alignment within an organisation’s deep structure, comprising systemic, operational and cognitive elements.
Drawing on comparative historical analysis of two major European chemical firms, Imperial Chemical Industries (ICI) and Badische Anilin- und Sodafabrik (BASF), the study analyses four decades of strategic development to explore how variations in organisational architecture shape susceptibility to self-reinforcing dynamics. The research synthesises historical evidence and organisation theory to develop a recursive model of strategic path formation linking deep structural alignment, strategic commitment, reinforcing effects and market feedback.
The analysis shows that organisations differ systematically in their vulnerability to path dependence. BASF’s highly integrated deep structure enabled reinforcing mechanisms such as coordination, complementarities, learning and adaptive expectations to become mutually amplifying, progressively narrowing strategic alternatives. By contrast, ICI’s comparatively loose and fragmented configuration moderated these dynamics, allowing persistence without full organisational lock-in. The study demonstrates that path dependence is best understood as a conditional and categorical organisational outcome rather than a ubiquitous feature of organisational persistence.
The study extends organisational path dependence theory by repositioning deep structural alignment as the conditioning architecture through which reinforcing mechanisms become organisation-wide and generative. It also contributes to business history and strategy research by showing how comparative historical analysis can generate theoretically portable insight into long-run strategic divergence, organisational persistence, and the boundary conditions of lock-in.
