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Significance

Planned infrastructure expansion comes amid shifts in Ugandan demographics with economic implications. The urban population is expected to grow to over 20 million people by 2040, while only 15% of new employment opportunities generated in the capital city are in the tradeable sector. Many urban jobs remain part of the informal economy, complicating efforts to raise domestic revenue.

Impacts

Economic growth will increase consumption through rising middle-class demand.

Current urban demand is met through imported, processed commodities, leading to the growth of less-productive, 'consumption' cities.

Productivity will depend on infrastructure investment; however, failure to raise domestic revenue could raise the risk of debt distress.

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