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Significance
Kampala's oscillation over its preferred route is adding to setbacks affecting its oil export plans, delaying anticipated revenues. The resulting fiscal squeeze is one of the several challenges facing Museveni following his return for a fifth term in office.
Impacts
The government will emphasise Chinese interest in the oil sector in a bid to project Museveni's economic plans as a success to voters.
The falling ratio of donor aid to GNI (16% in 2004 to 8% in 2016) will reduce Western states' leverage to demand governance reforms.
Uganda's importance as a security bulwark in East Africa will reduce Western states' appetite to criticise Museveni.
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2016
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