Reopening the raw wounds of the 1992-95 genocide.
The 1995 Dayton agreements created a fragile balance between the Bosnia-Hercegovina (BiH) state, the Republika Srpska (RS) and Federation entities, and the canton governments in the Federation, with many overlaps and ambiguities. A halt to decision-making at the state and Federation levels threatens IMF, World Bank and EU decisions, without which the whole country will lose almost all international support.
Muslim (Bosniak) leaders’ desire to revisit the 2007 genocide case will pitch both politicians and ordinary Bosnians against each other.
The crisis will bring relations between Bosnia and Serbia to their lowest point in many years.
Russia will strengthen ties with RS, albeit playing a restraining role; it recently urged against holding an independence referendum.
