The outlook for cobalt.
Aggressive cobalt stockpiling by investors has pushed the metal’s spot price from 25,000 dollars per tonne to nearly 60,000 dollars in the last twelve months. Strategic stockpiling has also taken place in Japan and China. Market effervescence has been driven by persistent fears of shortages, caused both by demand from electric vehicles (EVs) and recurrent concerns about the stability of supply from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), source of half of all the identified deposits in the world.
In a recent fire at Chinese-owned Tenke cobalt-copper mine in DRC, critical equipment was damaged, which could cause market tightening.
Cobalt may be included in the EU and US list of ‘conflict minerals’ if human rights violations continue in DRC, intensifying supply worries.
Chinese refiners will continue to expand control over small African producers and artisanal miners.
Market shortages could lead to restarting projects to mine 1,000-metre-deep clusters of oceanic cobalt crust in the Western Pacific.
