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Significance
Tensions along Africa’s Red Sea coast have been escalating since the beginning of the year. Fraught negotiations over GERD have been at times overshadowed by mutual recriminations over attempts to shift the balance of military power in the region. Egypt-Sudan relations, in particular, have been deeply impacted, aggravating a number of long-standing bilateral disputes.
Impacts
All the states involved are authoritarian, and some may look to exploit regional tensions to deflect growing domestic unrest.
Egyptian plans to build a dam in the disputed 'Halayeb Triangle' could exacerbate divisions.
While domestic unrest has distracted Ethiopia’s foreign policy focus, this will not extend to GERD.
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2018
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