University campuses serve as critical testbeds for net-zero transitions, but campus decarbonization measures are often designed and assessed in isolation, with limited attention to the dynamic interactions among energy, buildings, human activities and emissions. This study aims to propose a four-in-one analytical framework that differentiates the functional roles of energy substitution, infrastructure efficiency, organizational capacity and carbon-feedback regulation in campus operational decarbonization.
To explore these dynamics, an integrated system dynamics model is developed for a stylized, average-scale Chinese university campus. Scenario simulations from 2025 to 2035 compare a baseline pathway, four single-lever interventions and a coordinated intervention package.
The results indicate four model-based patterns: intervention effects remain relatively close during the initial period and diverge gradually as changes accumulate; energy-structure adjustment produces the largest simulated reduction among the individual interventions, while building-efficiency improvement generates more gradual effects; changes in organizational awareness or target stringency generate limited direct effects under the current model specification unless they are translated into technical deployment and implementation capacity; and a coordinated transformation pathway shows lower simulated emissions than standalone measures by linking technical interventions with organizational capacity and feedback mechanisms.
This work provides both a holistic analytical framework and a quantitative simulation tool to support universities in designing synergistic, evidence-based strategies for achieving robust and sustainable net-zero futures.
