Hybrid Microelectronics and the Market Opportunities in Europe

In order to identify and quantify the size and shape of the rapidly changing complexion of the market for hybrid microelectronics, in 1987 ISHM launched a survey in Europe of the market for thin‐film, thick‐film and surface‐mount‐on‐PCB hybrids for the periods 1980, 1986 and 1990. The survey aimed to obtain a hierarchical breakdown of the markets also into technology and application sectors. The general findings are reported. The credibility and quantity of the survey are considered in the context of the market for electronic equipment in Europe for 1987 and 1990. In electronics there is a continuing pressure to reduce prices and therefore adjustments should not be made for inflation. A growth in market value is thus a true reflection of a larger growth in market volume and a continuing increase in complexity. Thus, the 11% CAGR for 1986–1990 reflects a growth in equipment volumes of 20% over the 4 year period. Manufacturers will have to design and build increasingly complex circuits at a higher throughput and lower cost, at an increasing pace. It is not a business for faint hearts. Clearly the growth potential for the hybrid microelectronics market should be considered in the context of the equipment market, in order to judge the relative growth. In order to distinguish between the hybrid and PCB industries, the survey has aimed to estimate the growth in the developing market for hybrids using substrates up to 6 in. × 4 in. (Eurocard), not including the larger SMAs on PCBs for which there is a huge market growth potential. The immediate opportunity is from miniaturisation and cost reduction using hybrid microelectronics. The major push in technological emphasis in modern hybrids comes from the need for high‐density interconnection to support increasingly complex VLSI in high‐pin‐count surface‐mount micropackages and high‐performance substrates to support VHSIC and high‐performance circuits. Hence there is a major shift in hybrid microelectronics technology emphasis towards high‐density surface‐mount assemblies on PCB and other organic substrates. The total hybrid market sub‐divided among the basic three technologies reveals this emphasis. The portents are clear, and those who intend to succeed, or even simply survive, need to be aware of the shift in emphasis and prepare to diversify or establish strengths in niche applications.