Using Delphi to Forecast in New Technology Industries

Presents a case which suggests that companies in new‐technology‐based industries have a greater need for long‐term planning than those in other industries at other stages of development. During the period of an industry′s infancy, there is also a greater need for an industry, rather than a company, perspective. Judgemental forecasting techniques are suggested to be more suitable in new industries because of the problems associated with other forecasting methods. However, problems such as time pressure on executives and the need for confidentiality are more acute when using judgemental forecasting techniques in new industries. The Delphi technique has been used many times as a method of forecasting the future of established industries, but it has never been used to consider the future of a new industry. Discusses ten problems which can be encountered when Delphi is used in this situation and provides practical hints on procedures to overcome them, gained from its use to forecast changes in one new industry, the market analysis industry. Since new industries rarely have established trade organizations to carry out such Delphi studies, the role could be played by institutes of management education.