This paper introduces a new approach for autonomous internet‐based environmental scanning, which combines concept of weak signals with “information foraging theory”.
Early detection and rapid action with respect to developments in the operating environment is a prerequisite for successful marketing planning. Accordingly, this paper proposes a three‐stage process for overcoming practical obstacles to the detection and use of weak signals from the operating environment, in particular how to identify relevant and useful documents in harsh information environments such as the internet. Its functionality is demonstrated by means of a human‐machine experiment.
A framework based on information foraging theory is well suited to the task of determining the relevance of documents and facilitates the automation of information search processes. A prototype environmental scanning system of this type outperformed human experts in a typical scanning task.
Embedding the detection of weak signals in a formal process permits intelligence gatherers to step beyond anecdotal evidence, and complements the current literature on weak signal detection with formal and systematic procedural guidelines.
The presented methodology facilitates both the selection and the structuring of information sources. This unburdens the managers and leaves time for important tasks such as the development of concrete marketing plans reacting to detected developments.
The paper provides a comprehensive framework for web‐based weak signal detection in business environments, and can be used as a starting point for the development of practicable environmental scanning systems.
