Open and distance higher education in Ethiopia: past, present and prospects

The history of open and distance higher education (ODHE) dates back to the late nineteenth century, when German language teachers Charles Toussaint and Gustav Langenscheidt developed a correspondence study program (Moore, 2023). However, the field remained largely unchanged for nearly a century until 1969, when The Open University (UK) became the world's first single-mode distance education university. This marked a transformative era in higher education, which had previously catered mainly to elite minorities, making it inaccessible to the wider population (Jung, 2024).

Following The Open University (UK), a set of open universities was established in different countries worldwide, of which 60 were mega-universities, with an enrollment rate of 100,000 or more students (Darojat and Li, 2023). Nine of the world's first top ten Mega-universities in terms of student enrollment as recently noted by Nichols (2025), are located in Asia. This pattern indicates that Asian countries have placed strategic emphasis on expanding ODHE to reach the vast majority of their population. This provides a relevant policy lesson for other developing countries, including Ethiopia. The expansion of such universities has improved access, equity and cost-effectiveness for individuals previously unable to pursue higher education because of work or family responsibilities. Despite their invaluable contribution, especially in developing countries, ODHE in general and open universities in particular have faced several challenges in the last two decades.

These include the blurring of the boundary between ODHE and face-to-face education (Guri-Rosenblit, 2019; Kanwar et al., 2019; Stella and Gnanam, 2004), strong competition from inside and outside open universities (Qayyum and Zawacki-Richter, 2018; Tait, 2018) and quality constraints (Darojat and Li, 2023; Mkwizu and Junio-Sabio, 2024). However, the nature of these challenges differs between developed regions, such as North America and Europe and developing regions, such as Asia, Latin America and Africa. While access exceeds 85% in the former, the demand for innovative open-university models remains central in the latter countries (Tait, 2018). This approach offers a cost-effective way to increase access in Ethiopia.

Ethiopia, the second-most-populous country in Africa after Nigeria, has approximately 135.9 million people in 2025 and covers 1.13 million km² (World Bank, 2025). Despite its vast size and population, access to higher education remained limited until the late 1990s (Fayessa, 2010). The overall gross enrollment ratio for higher education at the undergraduate level was also less than 1% until 2003 (Tareke et al., 2024). In such a country, ODHE is crucial for promoting access, equity and cost-effectiveness (Latchem, 2016).

ODHE in Ethiopia began in the mid-1960s through radio and television-based instruction (Gupta, 1991), evolving through the Ministry of Education and Addis Ababa University's 1967 correspondence unit, subsequent shifts in institutional management and a sharp rise in demand following the 1991 political transition and 1994 education policy reform, driven by the need for flexible, lower-cost education and civil-service capacity building (Nekatibeb and Tilson, 2004). Thus, both public and private higher education institutions (HEIs) have launched an open and distance higher education programs (ODHEPs) over the past two decades (Akuma et al., 2025).

By 2018, undergraduate distance-learning enrollment had reached 74,532 students, accounting for 9.4% of total higher education enrollment (Tareke et al., 2024). These programs were delivered through nine public universities, five private universities with 44 study centers and 27 accredited private colleges covering 41 fields of study (HERQA, 2019). However, during the data collection period of this study, institutional reports and direct observations indicated that overall higher education enrollment was declining, with several distance programs facing potential suspension as the Ministry of Education (MoE) signaled a strategic policy shift prioritizing quality consolidation over access expansions.

Despite their short existence, distance higher education programs in the Ethiopian context are viewed differently by stakeholders and scholars in the field. Proponents argue that ODHE has expanded access to marginalized citizens who were previously denied access to higher education (Lerra, 2015). Critics, however, contend that the ODHE has contributed to declining quality over the past two decades (Asegu and Tafere, 2022).

Additionally, most existing studies have predominantly focused on specific aspects of ODHE such as program expansion, student access and general perceptions of distance learning (Akuma et al., 2025; Fayessa, 2010; Lerra, 2015; Woldeyes, 2014). While these studies offer only a partial view, relatively limited attention has been given to a comprehensive assessment of the current state of ODHE systems, including institutional practices, stakeholders' experiences, digital technology and quality-related challenges. Consequently, important questions remain regarding the effectiveness of ODHE implementation, the adequacy of learner support mechanisms and the broader implications of rapid program expansion for educational quality. Addressing such issues is essential for understanding the sustainability and credibility of ODHE provision.

This study, therefore, aims to examine the past development, present practices and future prospects of ODHE in Ethiopia by analyzing the experiences and perspectives of key stakeholders. Thus, the study intends to answer the following research questions.

1. How do students and tutors perceive the current state of distance higher education in their respective institutions?

2. To what extent has digital technology been integrated into the ODHE programs in the HEIs?

3. How effective has ODHE provision been over the past seven years? What is its fate in the future?

Bozkurt et al. (2015) noted that examining the theoretical frameworks used in research helps to reveal current trends in scholarly focus. This study adopts Scheerens' school effectiveness model based on institutional systems theory (Scheerens, 2000). The school effectiveness model comprises four major components. The model begins with context, which includes the environment of the school or institution. The next component, input, covers enrolled students, staff and resources such as infrastructure. The process element focuses on teaching and learning activities, course delivery and assessment. Finally, the output component measures students' achievement.

The African Virtual University (AVU) Quality Assurance Framework (AVU QAF) for Open, Distance and e-learning programs – adapted from the Commonwealth of Learning (COL) standards (Rama and Hope, 2009) utilizes the input and process components. For the output component, the research employs UNESCO's (2004) effectiveness indicators for assessing quality in ODHE as cited in Woldeyes (2014). In this model, effectiveness indicators include enrollment, dropout and successful completion rates. While these frameworks provide a structured basis for analysis, this study extends their application by examining the alignment between process variables (learner support and instructional interaction) and output indicators (cumulative grade point average (CGPA) and completion rates), thereby addressing a critical gap in evaluating ODHE effectiveness. Guided by these conceptual foundations, the following section outlines the design and procedures employed to examine Ethiopia's ODHE system.

Concurrent mixed-methods and descriptive survey designs, grounded in a pragmatic paradigm, were employed to collect and analyze data. This approach enabled parallel collection of quantitative and qualitative data, which were later integrated for interpretation (Creswell and Creswell, 2018). The purpose was to build on the synergy between the quantitative and qualitative methods to understand the phenomenon more comprehensively (Gay et al., 2012).

This study employed a triangulation approach, utilizing both primary and secondary data. Primary data on stakeholder perceptions (students and tutors) were gathered via questionnaires. Semi-structured interviews conducted with the same groups and tutorial session observations were used to complement the questionnaire data. Secondary data concerning students' profiles were collected from the registrar offices of the sample universities.

The main data sources of this study were students and tutors from four sample universities. From the 14 universities offering ODHE, four (28.6%) were selected through proportional stratified sampling to represent public (Pb) and private (Pr) institutions. As shown in Table 1, a sample of 611 students was taken using the formula $=N1+Ne2$⁠, where n = sample size, N = total population size and e = level of precision (marginal error). A 4% margin of error (96% confidence level) was used because it exceeds the conventional 95% confidence threshold, especially in survey studies (Gay et al., 2012). Accordingly, $=27,6311+27,6310.042$ , n = 611 was taken as the sample size for the study.

Due to the uneven distribution of tutor populations, tutor data were limited, a trend exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Consequently, a total of 96 tutors were selected from the three universities using the availability sampling technique, since the number of tutors is very limited and varies based on the number of courses offered in each term. Tutors of Pr2 were excluded because the university had not resumed face-to-face tutorials after the COVID-19 pandemic at the time of data collection.

Semi-structured interview guides were also utilized to collect relevant data from ODHE students and tutors using convenience sampling techniques. Volunteer tutors and students responded to interviews. Most interviews, especially those with students, were conducted through mobile calls. Before asking questions, consent was obtained from the interviewees to record their voices. For the sake of anonymity, participants' names were coded using letters and numbers.

Both descriptive (e.g. frequencies and percentages) and inferential analysis tools (e.g. independent samples t-tests and χ² tests) were used. Independent samples t-tests were employed to compare the perceptions of students and tutors towards the current state of ODHE, whereas chi-square tests and descriptive percentages were applied to analyze data related to digital technology. Qualitative data gathered from semi-structured interviews, direct observations and institutional documents were systematically organized and analyzed using a narrative thematic approach.

Guided by Scheerens (2000) school effectiveness model, the findings below trace how key stakeholders perceive the current state of ODHE, the extent of digital technology integration and overall institutional effectiveness across the context, input, process and output components.

In the school effectiveness model, context includes external factors such as socio-economic conditions, regulatory bodies and suppliers. In this study, the major regulatory body was the former Higher Education Relevance and Quality Agency (HERQA), which was established with Proclamation 351/2003. HERQA was re-established as an Education and Training Authority (ETA) with Proclamation 1,263/2021. QA bodies play a crucial role in developing standards and performance indicators to help review and guide the quality improvement procedures of HEIs (Jung, 2022). They also make HEIs accountable to the public (Kanwar et al., 2019; Mkwizu and Junio-Sabio, 2024). However, in practice, HERQA could not reflect this mandate (Asegu and Tafere, 2022). Consequently, public universities frequently failed to implement the recommendations given by HERQA during external auditing (Adamu and Addamu, 2012). This reveals that, lacking legal enforcement until the ETA's re-establishment in 2021, QA was largely nominal, which adversely impacted institutional performance. Having established this regulatory and policy context, attention now turns to the internal inputs – students, tutors and resources that shape program performance.

As shown in the school effectiveness model, input components deal with the quality of resources, mainly the quality of enrolled students, qualifications and experience of teachers and tutors and school facilities and/or digital technology infrastructures (in the ODHE context).

Among the 611 student participants, 62.8% were male and 37.2% were female. Regarding enrollment criteria, 44.0% were admitted based on Grade 12 national examination results, 24.3% held prior degrees and 28.3% possessed a Certificate of Competence. In this study, semi-structured interview items were used to assess the academic profile and motivations of enrolled students in the ODHE program. The interview results of students in response to questions asked about their academic background and why they chose the ODHE modality are presented as follows: One student explained that “My educational background is a sport science degree; but currently I am working as a marketing expert and attending my study in marketing at Pb1 University to earn a degree relevant to my job” (BDL33). Another student reported having “a BSc degree in Biological Science; and working as a school principal and attending a degree in Educational Planning and Management via the ODHE program at this university because of its relevance to the current position” (BSL53). The third student said, “I have a degree in Sociology; but after teaching for several years now I am working in a government organization; and studying Tour Management in Pr1 University through the ODHE program, because it is related to my present work” (DRL41).

These findings suggest that most students attending ODHE have a relatively good educational background. However, the modality has largely served to widen employment opportunities and facilitate career promotions, rather than to provide access for those previously marginalized from higher education – a purpose that contradicts its foundational mission (Holmberg, 2005). This pattern has important implications for the study's central argument. When employed students enroll primarily to acquire credentials relevant to their existing positions rather than to develop competencies through substantive learning, they may be less likely to demand rigorous instructional support, timely feedback, or substantive academic guidance. Such credential-seeking behavior may create a convergence of interests between students and enrollment-driven institutions, sustaining relatively high completion rates and grade point averages while tolerating suboptimal learner support. This dynamic offers a partial explanation for the performance–learning paradox identified in this study and raises concerns for QA frameworks in Ethiopian ODHE institutions.

In studying ODHE, it is often challenging to obtain reliable data from tutors because distance education coordinators recruit and assign part-time faculty based on the number of courses offered in a given term/semester in a dual-mode institution. Notwithstanding this limitation, it remains feasible to gather meaningful data from ODHE tutors. Table 2 presents the qualifications and experiences of tutors in the sample universities.

Table 2 indicates that the majority of tutors (82.3%) were male, while 17.7% were female. With regard to the educational level and academic rank of the tutors, 92.5% held a master's or doctoral degree and had the academic rank of lecturers and assistant professors. The distribution of service years was as follows: 43.2%, 32.4%, 13.5%, 6.8% and 4.1% were, respectively, one to five years, six to ten years, 11–15 years, 16–20 years and more than 20 years. This trend reveals that highly experienced instructors are not interested in participating in the provision of tutorial services for ODHE programs. In this regard, one of the department heads from Pb2 University reported that “it is very challenging to attract experienced and well-qualified instructors to ODHE courses because tutors are expected to summarize all modules and present them in a three-hour session per term; however, they are compensated only for the presentation time” (UJS25).

This is substantiated by prominent ODHE theorists. For instance, Holmberg (2005) argues that tutoring ODHE demands not only knowing the subject matter but also knowing how to summarize the whole content and present it in a way that distance learners easily understand. In this study, however, less experienced part-time workers were assigned to provide tutorial services in the ODHE program. This institutional arrangement may negatively affect instructional quality by reducing tutor motivation, limiting adequate course preparation and discouraging experienced academics from sustained engagement in ODHE programs. The finding further suggests that financial and organizational structures within Ethiopian ODHE institutions may undermine the consistency and effectiveness of tutorial support services.

Digital technology encompasses electronic tools, devices, systems and resources used to process, store and transmit data using digital signals, such as computers, smartphones and the internet (Bozkurt, 2023), unlike traditional tools that focus on printout-based technology and broadcast media (radio and TV) in the ODHE context (Peters, 2002). Studies have shown that access to digital technology and its usage are essential components in the provision of effective online and distance education programs and courses (Jung, 2024; Qayyum and Zawacki-Richter, 2018). Nevertheless, such access is often hampered by a lack of Internet connections, electricity-power disruption, insufficient information and communication technology (ICT) facilities, teachers' lack of ICT skills and difficulties in integrating digital technologies into instruction, especially in most developing countries such as Ethiopia (Adamu, 2024). The students' perceptions of the accessibility and utilization of emerging digital technologies are presented below.

As indicated in Table 3, a significant majority of students reported owning personal computers (65.2%) and smartphones (78.0%). In addition, 72.1% of participants reported reliable access to electric power, while 72.5% indicated access to Internet connectivity. The vast majority (85.6%) expressed confidence in their ability to utilize digital technology for distance learning, while 80.6% were interested in interacting with both tutors and colleagues through digital tools. However, a student interviewee from Pr1 reported that “I am an employee of the university; to be honest, the university is far from digital technology not only in supporting ODHE but also in facilitating its day-to-day activities” (GRL44). A tutor from the same university confirmed this, stating that “the university has become unable to cover the cost of modules, let alone to focus on the expansion of digital technologies” (ARS42).

Evidence from both the survey and interview data indicates that digital technology remains significantly underutilized by ODHE providers, even though learners possess relatively adequate access to these technologies and demonstrate a strong willingness to use them. This has important implications for policy prioritization, institutional investment and the modernization of ODHE delivery systems in Ethiopia. Beyond these structural inputs, the effectiveness of any ODHE program depends on the processes that link them – particularly learning infrastructure, course design, learner support and assessment.

The process subsection examines how the stakeholders (the learners and tutors) perceive the quality of ODHE – specifically the quality of infrastructure and resources, course design and development, learner support and progression and learner assessment and evaluation – in the sample universities. An independent samples t-test was used to analyze the four domains. Mean scores were utilized to evaluate each criterion standard. A threshold of 3.00 was established as the midpoint because scores below 3.00 are categorized as indicating disagreement on the Likert scale of “1 = strongly disagree to 5 = strongly agree” applied in this study. Four criteria standards were adapted from the AVUQAF.

As shown in Table 4, all P-values exceeded 0.05 suggesting there were no statistically significant differences between the mean scores of students and tutors across the four criteria standards. However, it is noteworthy that the mean score of students (M = 3.0, SD = 1.06) and that of tutors (M = 3.1, SD = 0.826; t(583) = –0.321, p = 0.749) on the quality of learner support service were the lowest of all. It comprises performance indicators, such as the extent of two-way communication and interaction between students and tutors, promptness of feedback and consistent advisory services. Thus, students were asked whether their respective universities and tutors were sufficiently responsive in this regard. Accordingly, the first student interviewee from Pr2 University reported, “I am a teacher; as to my understanding, modules are relatively understandable; the main challenge is the lack of immediate feedback and responses to questions and assignments; we as students need to know at least our grade results online” (BSL53). Another student from Pb2 University stated a similar issue differently: “while the quality of modules varies, the problem is the lack of feedback on the assignment; often, we know our results after a semester, which makes it difficult to correct errors. I have never seen any advisory services” (YJL23).

Learner support is a fundamental component of effective ODHE as distance learners require timely guidance on what, when and how to learn as well as prompt feedback on assignments (Belawati, 2025). These student testimonies are particularly significant because they illuminate the mechanism underlying the performance-learning paradox: despite receiving neither timely feedback nor substantive advisory services, students report relatively high CGPAs. This raises serious questions about whether grades in this context reflect genuine mastery of learning or an assessment system that lacks the rigor necessary to distinguish supported from unsupported learning – a concern that frames the output analysis that follows.

School effectiveness refers to how well a school can achieve its intended educational goals, especially in terms of improving students' learning outcomes, development and overall success (Scheerens, 2000). Although there are a set of factors accounting for the effectiveness of an education system, in this study student CGPA and students' profiles (registration rate versus retention/completion rate) are employed in assessing the effectiveness of ODHE.

The CGPA of students is one way commonly used to assess the effectiveness of schools in general and ODHE in particular.

As shown in Table 5, among the 566 student respondents, approximately 60% had a CGPA above 2.74 and 30% had a CGPA of 3.24 or higher (indicative of distinction-level performance), whereas only about 7% had a CGPA is below 2.00, placing them on academic probation. While this may suggest high academic achievement, it contrasts with reported limitations in learner support and instructional interaction. The discrepancy raises concerns about the extent to which CGPA reflects actual learning outcomes. It indicates a misalignment between assessment practices and the quality of educational processes.

Below is an analysis of students' attrition/completion versus dropout rates in the sample universities.

As shown in Table 6, across the reporting period, the total number of registered students was 32,727, the attrition rate (dropout, withdrawal, etc.) was 5,095 (15.6%) and the retention rate was 27,631 (84.4%). Notably, even the lowest recorded retention rate – 51.7% at Pb1 University – exceeds the 10–20% global completion-rate benchmark reported for ODHE programs elsewhere (Ndege et al., 2024), though retention and completion are related but distinct metrics and this comparison should be read as indicative rather than exact. Similarly, in most Canadian online courses the completion rate was between 5 and 10% compared to the conventional face-to-face mode, while it was approximately 44% in 2017 at The Open University (UK) (Qayyum and Zawacki-Richter, 2018).

When examined through the lens of the school effectiveness model (Scheerens, 2000), the findings of this study, reveal that ODHE in Ethiopia operates under a condition of systemic misalignment: one in which the output component (academic performance indicators) appears robust while the process component (learner support and instructional interaction) remains structurally underdeveloped.

The most consistent pattern emerging from the data is the systematic weakness of learner support across multiple dimensions, including interaction, feedback and academic guidance. Previous studies highlight that robust learner support is central to student engagement and success in ODHE institutions (Wani et al., 2023; Zuhairi et al., 2020). Because ODHE instruction occurs in an environment where learners and instructors/tutors are physically separated, means of two-way interaction between the two parties are of paramount importance. According to transactional distance theory (Moore, 2018), reduced interaction/dialogue increases psychological and communication gaps between the learner and instructor, thereby undermining the effectiveness of the learning process. This gap represents not only an isolated operational issue but also indicates a systemic failure in the process component of ODHE, where the essential link between instruction and learning is weakened.

With regard to digital technology, Ahmed et al. (2025) argue that the integration of educational technologies is increasingly essential in the realm of education, while its effectiveness necessitates the active involvement of organizational administration, students and educators. Conversely, the findings indicate that while students have relatively adequate access to digital devices and demonstrate readiness to use them, this potential is not meaningfully integrated into the instructional process, which remains dominated by traditional delivery modes. This represents a missed opportunity as digital technologies could enhance assessment accuracy, enable real-time feedback and foster learner motivation and engagement (Kampa, 2023; Thaanyane and Jita, 2026).

A particularly significant finding of this study is the coexistence of relatively high CGPA scores and completion rates alongside weak learner support and limited instructional interaction. Such high CGPA scores could relate to weak assessment integrity arising when setting, administering and marking assessment tools (exams and assignments), mainly by less experienced and demotivated tutors and invigilators, which might have resulted in grade inflation. A previous study conducted in India indicates that less experienced tutors are not only inefficient in providing tutorial services and assessing students but also resist the changes toward a new mode of delivery (Wani et al., 2023). Consequently, it is essential to train the tutors on how to manage the constantly changing instructional approaches and assessment methods of ODHE due to rapid changes in digital technology. Additionally, transforming the assessment approach to a formative and competency-based approach that evaluates what students can perform rather than what they are expected to know is of paramount importance for improving the validity of the assessment system. This is substantiated by a recent study titled “Personalized Education for All” by (Jung, 2024).

The results in Table 6 also reveal that high completion rates compared with global benchmarks. These results contradict existing literature, which posits that reduced attrition rates and high completion rates are attributed to effective learner support services of ODHE institutions (Netanda et al., 2019). High completion rates without strong learner support services and adequate technological infrastructure question the criteria and standards employed by the ODHE institutions to promote students from one grade level to another. However, criteria and standards set to assess conventional face-to-face education may not be sufficient to measure the quality of ODHE. Although the basic QA mechanisms are the same for both traditional and distance education, the unique feature of ODHE poses challenges to the conventional approach to QA (Stella and Gnanam, 2004). In this regard, Jung (2022) suggests the need for QA models that encourage innovation, diversity and inclusion. The present study, therefore, highlights the importance of regularly revising QA standards and guidelines in general and those of ODHE in particular by considering the diverse needs of the 21^st-century students.

From a systems perspective, this study demonstrates that while ODHE has successfully expanded access, this expansion has not been matched by proportional improvements in institutional capacity or pedagogical quality. This imbalance mirrors challenges frequently identified in developing-country contexts, where rapid expansion often precedes quality consolidation (Darojat and Li, 2023; Jung, 2024). Consequently, the sustainability of ODHE depends on aligning the expansion of access with substantive advancements in learner support, digital infrastructure and QA systems.

In sum, the ODHE system in Ethiopia exhibits a performance–learning paradox: formal indicators of academic success – such as enrollment growth, completion rates and CGPA – appear encouraging, while persistent weaknesses in learner support, tutor engagement, digital integration and QA undermine the system's long-term credibility and sustainability.

This study demonstrates that while ODHE in Ethiopia has successfully expanded access to higher education, this growth has not been met with corresponding improvements in pedagogical quality, learner support and institutional capacity. The findings reveal a critical imbalance in which increased enrollment is accompanied by limited interaction, delayed feedback and weak academic guidance, indicating a systemic weakness within the instructional framework.

The study contributes to the field by demonstrating that expansion-oriented ODHE systems may produce misleading indicators of success when instructional quality and learner support remain underdeveloped. The identification of a “performance–learning paradox” provides a new lens for evaluating the effectiveness of distance education systems beyond conventional metrics.

Policy implications: The findings underscore the need for stronger institutional and regulatory mechanisms to ensure that the rapid expansion of ODHE is matched by commensurate improvements in instructional quality, learner support services and digital learning infrastructure. Priority should be placed on strengthening tutor training, optimizing feedback mechanisms and enhancing institutional accountability through more effective QA monitoring. Furthermore, transforming conventional ODHE into a more flexible model, including the potential establishment of an Open University of Ethiopia (OUE), is suggested. An OUE could provide a more structured and centralized framework for delivering ODHE, with clearer standards for assessment and quality control, coordination and system accountability.

Future research should investigate the relationship between assessment practices and actual learning outcomes within ODHE contexts as well as explore strategies for strengthening institutional capacity in rapidly expanding systems. Such research is essential to ensure that access expansion translates into meaningful and effective learning experiences for all students.

During the preparation of this manuscript, the author used AI-assisted tools to support literature searching, language refinement and structuring of responses to editorial feedback. All research design, data collection, analysis, interpretation and the manuscript's final academic content and arguments are the author's own. AI-assisted text was reviewed, verified and edited by the author prior to inclusion and the author takes full responsibility for the content of this publication.