A new forecasting model for the diffusion of ISO 9000 standard certifications in European countries

ISO 9000 standards for quality system management are involving a higher and higher number of enterprises and organizations. This paper presents a detailed analysis of certification diffusion in Italy and in some European countries with similar economic structures. Benchmarking and evolution forecasts are based on the “logistic model”, traditionally used for studying biological growth phenomena. The presentation is supported by many empirical data, which show that, in many countries, the phenomenon is going to be close to saturation. Finally, some considerations about new developments, after the present “certification era”, are proposed.