Green fuels and emerging business models for sustainable logistics: decoding innovation for the genesis of new supply chains Open Access

Among the environmental challenges companies face, few are as complex as those related to transporting raw materials, capital goods and merchandise (Jazairy et al., 2021, 2025). Still largely dependent on fossil-fuel-based technologies, logistics services related to these matters are major contributors to global warming (Guntuka et al., 2024) and greenhouse gas–driven climate instability (Kahalimoghadam et al., 2024), as diesel use in urban and road transport is a key source of CO₂ and pollutants such as NOx (Ge et al., 2025). Unsurprisingly, logistics operators like UPS, Fedex and DHL rank among the largest corporate polluters, mainly due to their reliance on diesel and other non-renewable fuels (e.g. gasoline, kerosene) (Langford, 2024). To mitigate freight's environmental impact, companies and governments have invested in alternatives that combine environmental gains with economic viability (European Commission, 2025; Shell, 2025). From an energy transition perspective, replacing fossil fuels with renewables has become central to logistics research (e.g. Tan et al., 2025).

The electrification of fleets (i.e. the replacement of internal combustion engines with electric systems) becomes increasingly popular, just like the use of electricity for the production of synthetic fuels (e.g. power-to-liquid) (Mesfun et al., 2017). The adoption of fuels considered technologically superior and clean (e.g. hydrogen) has also gained ground. Derived essentially from organic material, biofuels (e.g. HVO100) complete this range of possibilities. Although they contribute to improving environmental performance in the logistics sector, these options are not without criticism. The intensive use of electricity, for example, is pointed out as problematic, especially when the generation sources are non-renewable (e.g. coal). Sources considered renewable and more environmentally friendly, such as hydroelectricity, solar energy or wind power, have their own deleterious effects, including the flooding of large areas to create lakes, heat retention or disruption of bird migration patterns, respectively (Fracarolli Nunes and Lee Park, 2021). Hydrogen, in turn, is mostly derived from natural gas, a non-renewable source (International Renewable Energy Agency, 2021). Finally, biofuels can require large tracts of land for their production, negatively impacting the supply and, consequently, the price of food (Fracarolli Nunes and Lee Park, 2021). Overcoming these issues requires, thus, the development of alternatives that align the production of clean fuels with the minimisation of their environmental impacts.

Biomethane – produced through biodigestion of organic waste – emerges as a promising solution (Tratzi et al., 2025). Generated by bacterial interaction with organic matter in controlled environments (Ryckebosch et al., 2011), it is positioned as a competitive substitute for fossil fuels in urban and road transport (Osman et al., 2023). Derived from renewable organic material, it can reduce CO₂ emissions by up to 90% compared to diesel (Abiogas, 2025). However, translating environmental potential into operational and economic viability demands complex organisational engineering. Beyond regulatory challenges (European Commission, 2023), commercialisation requires structuring a business model and a supply chain capable of supporting large-scale production and distribution (International Energy Agency, 2023; Nadaleti et al., 2021). This involves securing financing, ensuring stable supplies of organic waste, building distribution networks and producing biomethane-compatible vehicles (Geo Biogas and Carbon, 2025). Consequently, diverse actors – banks (UBS Investment Bank, 2022), agricultural producers (e.g. sugar mills; CNN, 2024), fuel distributors (Mertins et al., 2023) and truck manufacturers (Volvo Trucks, 2023) – must cooperate with biomethane producers. Replacing diesel thus depends on coordinating heterogeneous interests within a complex network.

Such circular business models face uncertainties and risks that complicate implementation (Linder and Williamder, 2017), as supply chain formation requires uncommon alignment. As a consequence, many sustainable business model innovations fail despite their benefits (Geissdoerfer et al., 2018). Identifying the types of value generated and how stakeholders can capture them seems to be critical for multi-stakeholder alignment and governance (Antikainen and Valkokari, 2016), with potential partners being classified by what participation represents for them. For agricultural waste suppliers and truck manufacturers, biomethane offers business expansion. At the same time, sugar mills generate organic by-products suitable for biodigestion (e.g. sugarcane bagasse, vinasse), truck manufacturers – automotive firms producing or assembling trucks—can expand through adapted vehicles. Conversely, banks and fuel distributors may face portfolio competition and resource reallocation. Banks provide credit or project financing, while fuel distributors manage transportation, pipelines and retail points such as gas stations.

Participation may also bring reputational incentives, as alignment with environmentally positive initiatives can enhance stakeholder perception (Khalid et al., 2024). Yet, research on sustainable business model innovation often emphasises firm-level challenges, overlooking interdependence (Aboelmaged et al., 2024). This disconnection from supply chain, operations, logistics and sustainability studies (Wong and Ngai, 2019; Feng et al., 2022) may hinder integrated innovation. The limited systematic study of sustainable business model development – including partner attraction – constitutes a research gap (Norris et al., 2021; Nilsson and Göransson, 2021) that the study addresses. It does so by framing large-scale biomethane production as an innovative green project requiring business model structuring and partner alignment. Given that sustainability initiatives enhance reputational capital (Ng et al., 2024; Zhang et al., 2024), participation decisions are also tested for their potential to carry reputational implications. Although sustainable business models have been widely discussed, the structured formation of a biomethane-based supply chain involving simultaneous financial, industrial and distribution partners has not, to our knowledge, been systematically examined through an inter-organisational behavioural lens in the logistics literature.

The objectives of the study can be translated then into the following research questions: (1) Does the perception of an innovative green project influence the propensity of potential partners to join? (2) Does (non)participation in an innovative green project have a significant impact on reputation? and (3) Do the potential reputational impacts differ for the two groups of companies (i.e. opportunity for expansion of current business, group 1, or a competitor of current business portfolio, group 2)? Grounded on social exchange theory (Emerson, 1976; Cropanzano and Mitchell, 2005), on transition management theory (Noboa and Upham, 2018; Shum, 2017) and on the dynamics faced by entrepreneurs building a biomethane supply chain, two factorial scenario-based behavioural experiments were conducted with 345 US respondents. In Study 1, professionals with current or prior leadership roles in finance and insurance, food processing and service, oil and gas, and manufacturing evaluated a commercial biomethane project in which a focal firm sought their support. Openness to participate was measured through trust, attitude towards the firm and corporate image. Study 2 assessed potential reputational gains or losses from the decision to (not) participate, based on final consumers' perceptions. Reputational rents, including purchase intention, were treated as intangible strategic incentives.

The study advances social exchange theory and transition management theory in innovation contexts by testing their premises in inter-organisational settings. Identifying perceived value among potential supply chain partners and classifying them according to their interests clarifies motives for joining innovation projects, contributing to multi-stakeholder governance research. From a practical angle, the findings anticipate challenges and benefits typical of sustainable business model initiatives, guiding entrepreneurs and supply chain actors in evaluating opportunities. Understanding behavioural and reputational dynamics may facilitate large-scale biomethane production and diesel substitution in road and urban transport, reducing logistics-related pollution.

Section 2 reviews literature on collaboration in innovative business models, biomethane's substitution potential, trust, attitude towards the firm, corporate image, purchase intention and social exchange theory, complemented by transition management theory, sustainable business model innovation and multi-stakeholder governance. These views support the development of 11 hypotheses. Sections 3, 4, 5 and 6 present method, results, discussion and conclusion.

While innovative and more efficient technologies constantly emerge, their implementation depends on the development of viable business models (Schiavi and Behr, 2018). Technological revolutions often fail due to insufficient financial support (Xiang et al., 2022), limited access to raw materials (Gervais et al., 2021), inadequate infrastructure (Tang et al., 2021) or the absence of products adapted to their use (Chizaryfard et al., 2023). In sustainable logistics, environmentally superior solutions are frequently abandoned because developers cannot establish partnerships that ensure economic viability. In other cases, green technologies remain confined to small-scale contexts (e.g. amateurs, urban waste sites, university laboratories, modest research centres and small farmers – European Biogas Association, 2022). Despite their potential, such initiatives may not reach commercial scale due to the inability to align essential partners. Fuels produced from organic waste illustrate this difficulty, particularly biomethane.

Derived from the cleaning and upgrading of biogas – mainly composed of CH4 and CO₂ plus trace components (Ryckebosh et al., 2011) – biomethane is an environmentally superior alternative to fossil fuels and can replace them in logistics, especially in road and urban transport (Franco et al., 2025). Its production involves anaerobic biodigestion of organic materials (e.g. agricultural waste) in controlled biodigesters. Maintaining adequate temperature, pressure and organic matter supply is essential for bacterial metabolism (Molino et al., 2013). After generation, purification removes hydrogen sulphide, nitrogen, water vapor, siloxanes, hydrocarbons, ammonia and carbon monoxide. The purified mixture of CH4 and CO2 constitutes biomethane. Figure 1 illustrates this cycle.

Although technically complex, production is manageable, with main barriers concerning structural conditions for sustained production and distribution. Global demand is expanding as economies grow more energy-intensive. Singapore, for instance, considers biomethane viable for powering data centres (Galang, 2025) and, through the “Biomethane Sandbox,” encourages imports to replace fossil fuels. Similar developments are underway in Japan (Nakamura, 2025), Vietnam and Cambodia, where rice husks serve as biodigestion inputs (Erex, 2025; Bioenergy Insight, 2025). In Europe, production accelerates unevenly. Márkus (2025) notes growing attractiveness in Germany, Norway, the UK, Switzerland and Ukraine. Around 80% of German production derives from agricultural residues and energy crops, while approximately 85% in Norway comes from sewage sludge.

Despite reducing CO₂ emissions by more than 90% compared to diesel (Scania, 2025), biomethane remains underutilised. The core issue lies in organising a supply chain capable of supporting large-scale production and distribution. A coordination dilemma emerges: distributors hesitate due to uncertain demand, while truck drivers avoid investing in adapted vehicles because of limited refuelling infrastructure (Isfer, 2024). Consequently, use remains localised, limiting its broader environmental and economic value. As entrepreneurs seek to overcome these constraints, biotechnology start-ups must transform biomethane commercialisation into an operational business supported by contracts and partnerships. The consolidation of these partnerships depends on relational dynamics and mutual perceptions. Figure 2 depicts a typical network and its four essential partners.

The following sub-sections examine key relational factors, discussing sustainable business models and addressing three of the study's four dependent variables.

Dedicated to examining the conception, implementation and refinement of new operations (Chesbrough, 2010; Massa and Tucci, 2013), the literature on business model innovation explores the complexities inherent to novelty (Foss and Saebi, 2017). It addresses success and failure factors at the business model level, particularly risk identification and management (e.g. Sjödin et al., 2023; Christense et al., 2016). Increasingly, studies emphasise relationship building among supply chain partners (e.g. Oke et al., 2013) and cooperation mechanisms (e.g. Solaimani and van der Veen, 2022; Wu et al., 2022), as actor integration is critical to innovation outcomes. Business model innovation is understood here as the structured process of designing or significantly modifying how an organisation operates internally and in its interfaces with other organisations (e.g. supply chain partners).

When oriented towards socio-environmental objectives, this debate develops under the label sustainable business model innovation (Geissdoerfer et al., 2018), where “sustainable” refers to organisational performance towards nature and society. Prominent themes include Industry 4.0 (Man and Strandhagen, 2017) and circular operations (Witjes and Lozano, 2016), with these and other topics underpinning research on energy transition in logistics (Shakeel et al., 2020). Loock (2020) frames business model innovation as a means to overcome inefficiencies while pursuing sustainability goals, highlighting creativity in addressing bottlenecks that hinder energy transition. Chapman et al. (2003), in turn, emphasise the role of technology, knowledge and relationship networks in enabling logistics service providers to operate emerging business models.

The effort to assemble partners capable of scaling biomethane production is interpreted here as an attempt to overcome such bottlenecks. Complementing this view, transition management theory (TMT) (Noboa and Upham, 2018; Shum, 2017) addresses the development of public policies supporting sustainability-driven initiatives. Kumar (2021) applies its premises to analyse freight transport sustainability in developing nations, identifying alternative fuels – alongside efficient terminals and compliance with emission regulations – as priorities.

Interaction between public (e.g. governments) and private players (i.e. supply chain partners) introduces additional complexity, requiring attention to multi-stakeholder governance. As Fougère and Solitander (2020, p. 683) state, “multi-stakeholder governance involves actors from several spheres of society (market, civil society, and state) in collaborative arrangements to reach objectives typically related to sustainable development”. Since biomethane production depends on strategic alignment among diverse actors, governance adapted to a multi-stakeholder perspective becomes essential.

Research on bioenergy and biofuel systems highlights commercialisation and governance challenges in scaling renewable fuels (Nadaleti et al., 2021; Nilsson and Göransson, 2021; Noboa and Upham, 2018; International Energy Agency, 2023). Bio-based energy models require coordinated action across producers, technology providers, distributors and regulators. Yet limited attention has been devoted to how prospective supply chain partners perceive participation in large-scale biofuel initiatives and how such perceptions influence alignment. This study addresses this matter by examining stakeholder motivations in forming a biomethane-based logistics network. The following sub-section discusses how the constructs trust, corporate credibility and attitude towards firms relate to this.

Trust refers to the perception that an interacting party harbours no harmful intentions, reducing the need for protective barriers against potential damage (Duan et al., 2025). Relationships rely on the belief that the other will not behave opportunistically (Son et al., 2021) and deepen as security increases. In interpersonal contexts, trust sustains bonds such as friendship or marriage (Durrah, 2023; Tallman and Hsiao, 2004), with a similar logic applying to organisations. Although professional relationships pursue distinct objectives, they remain shaped by human dynamics, with trust guiding corporate interactions (Zhang and Huo, 2013). As both a signal of interaction quality and an antecedent of relational potential, trust configures a strategic resource. Narayanan et al. (2015) regard it as a source of competitive advantage because it reduces transaction costs (Coase, 1937). Higher trust limits the need for safeguards such as contracts or insurance, facilitating information exchange and improving performance.

Credibility concerns the extent to which an actor's signals are perceived as trustworthy. It functions as a guarantee of authenticity, reducing the need for constant verification (Hovland and Weiss, 1951; Renn and Levine, 1991). In inter-organisational contexts, credibility reinforces potential partnerships, accelerating exchanges and lowering transaction costs, thereby contributing to competitive advantage (Bromiley and Harris, 2006). Newell and Goldsmith (2001) define corporate credibility – expertise as the extent to which a company is perceived as capable of fulfilling its promises.

Attitude towards the firm captures stakeholders' perceptions and feelings towards an organisation, indicating openness to engagement (Herhausen et al., 2012; Lee Park and Fracarolli Nunes, 2024). Accordingly, this study combines trust, corporate credibility – expertise, and attitude towards the firm to assess potential partners' reactions to an innovative green project, treating these constructs as dependent variables consistent with social exchange theory.

When addressing the motivators and conditions of social interactions, social exchange theory (SET) (Emerson, 1976; Cropanzano and Mitchell, 2005) argues that the need for exchange values is a central factor of cohesion, as individuals seek from others what they cannot achieve alone, fostering the formation of social bodies (e.g. families, communities, networks) (Cook et al., 2013). Individual interest thus operates as a trigger for connections, with the recognition of a need helping to explain or predict relationships. Unlike perspectives emphasising dispute and competition for scarce resources (e.g. resource competition, Tilman, 1982), SET focuses on exchanges in which the potential for mutual benefit drives reciprocal actions. It highlights social negotiation (Whitham and Savage, 2024), contrasting views centred on force or bargaining power. Due to these characteristics, SET has informed multiple humanities disciplines (e.g. sociology, social psychology, microeconomics, Emerson, 1976), supporting interpretations of relational mechanics.

Extending its premises from individuals to firms, SET has been widely applied to interorganisational dynamics, particularly relationships between supply chain partners (Chen and Chen, 2019). It captures interactions ranging from transactional exchanges to strategic, long-term partnerships. Tanskanen (2015), for example, applies SET to complex buyer–supplier relationships, examining long-term commitments based on contractual and non-contractual obligations. Terpend and Krause (2015) use the theory to analyse power-imbalance situations across competitive and cooperative supply chain interfaces.

The notion that firms engage in relationships to obtain value accessible only through exchange has direct implications for this study. It shapes how an innovative green project is evaluated by potential partners. For some, participation represents a unique opportunity to expand business activities, increasing the perceived value of the initiative. As discussed before, rural producers and truck manufacturers exemplify this situation. For others, however, participation does not necessarily generate exclusive benefits, as similar advantages may be obtained through alternative projects. As also discussed previously, in the context evaluated here, the potential financers (i.e. banks) and fuel distributors would be in this position. According to the premises of SET, the lower value perceived in their participation would translate into a lower propensity to integrate an innovative green project when compared to those who perceive greater utility in doing so.

These situations support the first group of hypotheses of the study, with the constructs trust, corporate credibility – expertise, and attitude towards the firm denoting the value perceived by the actors in question and their propensity to accept what is presented to them, as follows.

If trust, corporate credibility – expertise, and attitude towards the firm jointly represent a supply chain partner's inclination to establish relationships, purchase intention captures this dynamic at the company–consumer interface (Shehawy and Khan, 2024). Purchase decisions involve objective factors (e.g. price, availability) and subjective ones (e.g. trust, perceptions, feelings), with intention reflecting satisfaction across both dimensions (Grewal et al., 2004). In this study, a partner's decision to join an innovative green project is expected to generate gains in consumer perception, enhancing the company's subjective evaluation.

Evidence indicates that firms perceived as environmentally responsible enjoy reputational advantages in target markets, which may increase consumers' propensity to purchase their products and services (Ng et al., 2024; Zhang et al., 2024). Associating with an environmentally superior project can therefore produce reputational gains, improving communication quality, acceptance and consumers' willingness to establish relational and transactional ties. While trust, corporate credibility – expertise, and attitude towards the firm reflect relational aspects of these gains, purchase intention encompasses their transactional dimension. These conjectures support the proposition of the second group of hypotheses of the study:

While participation in an innovative green project can benefit companies, refusal may produce the opposite effect. Firms that decline involvement in initiatives aimed at reducing pollution and greenhouse gas emissions are likely to be judged negatively by observers. Empirical evidence shows that firms that avoid environmental responsibilities (Mukandwal et al., 2024) or fail to advance ecological goals are penalised by stakeholders – including consumers, investors, suppliers and employees – through reputational losses (Kassinis and Vafeas, 2006; Lee and Raschke, 2023).

Although such reactions occur regardless of the firm's degree of responsibility, negative responses tend to intensify when the missed environmental opportunity is perceived as highly significant. In this study, this reasoning suggests that companies refusing to join an innovative green project will face reputational damage, with stronger penalties when the initiative holds greater transformative potential for their operations. Specifically, firms able to expand their business through the project (group 1) are expected to be more severely penalised than those for whom the project merely competes with their existing portfolio (group 2), as expressed below:

Originally employed in sociological research (Rossi et al., 1974; Rossi and Nock, 1982), scenario-based experiments use short, systematically varied vignettes describing situations or persons to observe participants' behaviours, feelings and attitudes under randomly distributed conditions (Steiner et al., 2016; Eckerd et al., 2021). Widely applied in psychology, medicine, economics and public policy, the method has also been incorporated into management research. Studies have examined a myriad of themes, including business-to-business customers' willingness-to-pay (Geiger et al., 2015), responses to corruption from an institutional logics perspective (Muratbekova-Touron et al., 2021), and service failure and recovery in restaurants (Kim and Jang, 2014).

In operations and supply chain research, the method has explored reputational enablers for including war veterans and disabled people in supplier diversity programs (Lee Park et al., 2024), determinants of knowledge acquisition (Hora and Klassen, 2013), corporate irresponsibility and supply chain contamination (Fracarolli Nunes et al., 2021), and supply chain disruption impacts on inventory management (Sarkar and Kumar, 2015). Role-playing scenario-based experiments are considered appropriate for understanding managers' judgements and preferences (Rungtusanatham et al., 2011).

Building on entrepreneurs' experiences in developing the biomethane supply chain, we designed two factorial scenario-based behavioural experiments with 345 US respondents recruited through Prolific Academic (www.prolific.com). The United States was selected due to its structural relevance. The country is one of the world's largest energy producers and consumers, with heavy reliance on fossil-fuel transportation systems (Neves and Marques, 2021), making renewable alternatives particularly pertinent. As a major agricultural producer (Squalli and Adamkiewicz, 2023), it offers scalable feedstock for biomethane. Additionally, its robust financial system (Studenski and Krooss, 2003) and extensive natural gas distribution infrastructure (Avraam et al., 2020) align with the multi-actor dynamics examined in this study.

The first study portrayed Company A as a biotechnology company dedicated to developing sustainable fuels and focused on biomethane generated from agricultural waste as a suitable substitute for diesel in trucks to lower the environmental consequences of road transportation. Four important challenges are described as fundamental for Company A to succeed, concerning the necessary partnerships with (1) attaining significant financial investment to build its biomethane production sites; (2) gaining access to agricultural waste in a way that secures stability in its production in terms of regularity and volume; (3) being able to distribute biomethane to consumers through a distribution network; and (4) the availability of trucks that are compatible with biomethane in the market.

The first manipulation factor was then inserted, connected with the role that each respondent was asked to play – the CEO of a (1) an industrial projects' focused bank; (2) a producing and refining sugar mill; (3) an oil and gas pipelines and gas stations operating fuel distributor; and (4) a medium and heavy semi-trucks manufacturer, thus generating four variation scenarios. Pre-screen options were put in place to recruit professionals with current or prior leadership positions in the finance and insurance, food and processing service, oil and gas, and manufacturing industries and four simultaneous data collection actions were released, where four pools of participants were matched to the corresponding role (i.e. (1) bank, (2) sugar mill, (3) fuel distributor and (4) truck manufacturer, respectively). Each participant was presented with the commercial biomethane production project in the base scenario, and the company leading the initiative (i.e. Company A) requesting their respective support. Prolific Academic's screening mechanism identified 3,506 eligible potential respondents that fit our filtering points (i.e. residing in the United States, being above 18 years old, having occupied or currently occupying a leadership position within the four selected industries), and active within the 90 days that preceded our data collection, making the studies available in their respective profiles, and an initial pool of 149 participants were recruited. Seven individuals were automatically removed from the study for failing attention-check questions, and eight incomplete answers were excluded, leading to a sample of 134 responses. A verification question was also inserted to assert that respondents reflected the correct partner in the manipulation factor, prompting 13 answers to be further removed, and hence yielding a final sample of 121 individual, valid and complete answers (51.2% female, 40.7 years average age).

The second study employed the same base scenario to examine reputational effects associated with partners' decisions to participate in the project, as perceived by potential final consumers. The manipulation concerned the four essential partnerships for Company A: (1) bank, (2) sugar mill, (3) fuel distributor and (4) truck manufacturer. Each was approached with a presentation of the biomethane project, its environmental advantages and a specific request around loan financing, supply of sugar-cane bagasse, access to fuel distribution infrastructure or production of biomethane-compatible trucks. A third manipulation indicated either acceptance or refusal. These responses were randomly and evenly distributed across participants.

The 4x2 between-subjects design generated eight scenarios. Prolific Academic identified 97,670 eligible US candidates meeting screening criteria (residency, age, leadership position, industry, non-participation in the first study and recent activity). Of these, 265 accessed the survey. After excluding 10 failed attention checks, 15 incomplete, and 2 duplicate responses, 238 remained. A verification question ensured correct identification of the manipulated partner, resulting in 14 additional exclusions and a final sample of 224 valid responses (47.8% female; mean age 40.4). Homogeneity across gender and age groups was confirmed at the 99% significance level. Table 1 presents the base and variation scenarios, and Figure 3 illustrates the experimental structure.

The scenario-based experiment method has been increasingly used in studies in the area of operations and supply chain management, offering important insights into decision-making and perceptual patterns that can be expected from those confronted with the real-world situations it simulates. Authors such as Gao et al. (2023) highlight that the method stands as a powerful and well-established tool with great potential to advance knowledge on causal relationships, particularly those associated with firms' operations. Carter et al. (2024) also stress the growing utilisation of the method in the field, pointing to its increasing presence in some of its most prestigious journals. These and other efforts seem to recognise that by placing participants in contact with situations that, although hypothetical, are carefully tailored to analyse the problem of interest, scenario-based experiments offer a broad understanding of the matter studied. The collection and analysis of the respective responses allow one to grasp the essence of the reactions, not only regarding what is specific to the scenario presented but also concerning the conceptual and abstract aspects that surround it. In this regard, it is worth noting that the main objective of an experiment is not to exhaust the understanding of a real situation or case, but rather to capture a tendency in the respondents' reactions when confronted with a context that shall be reproducible in other situations.

Supplementary questions were included to certify that participants had the proper understanding of scenarios and manipulation factors that they were responding to, and how realistic they found the presented conditions. The first two questions concerned Company A's description (M_{study 1} = 6.5 against the mid-point 4, t = 27.986, p < 0.001; M_{Study 2} = 6.6, t = 54.769, p < 0.001) and main activity (M_{study 1} = 6.4, t = 25.591, p < 0.001; M_{Study 2} = 6.4, t = 40.081, p < 0.001). In study 2, two subsequent questions on the potential partner's description (M_{study 2} = 6.4, t = 41.712, p < 0.001), and response (i.e. positive or negative, M_{study 2} = 6.5, t = 37.206, p < 0.001). A perceived environmental responsibility scale (van der Weff et al., 2021) and a perceived intention in engaging in environmental responsible behaviour (Swaim et al., 2014) were adapted from the literature to confirmed that participants interpreted Company A's sustainability focus correctly (for the first one, M_{study 1} = 5.7, t = 17.353, p < 0.001; M_{study 2} = 5.9, t = 28.021, p < 0.001; and for the second one, M_study 1 = 5.5, t = 13.681, p < 0.001; M_{study 2} = 5.6, t = 21.406, p < 0.001). Furthermore, the perceived intention in engaging in environmental responsible behaviour was also adapted to reflect if respondents understood the potential partners' positive or negative responses (M_study 2 = 4.4, t = 4.484, p < 0.001) in the second study. Finally, participants clearly deemed scenarios as realistic (M_{study 1} = 5.6, t = 13.685, p < 0.001; M_{study 2} = 5.5, t = 17.727, p < 0.001) and believable (M_{study 1} = 5.7, t = 15.180 p < 0.001; M_{study 2} = 5.6, t = 19.025, p < 0.001).

Measurement instruments for trust (studies 1 and 2, Morgan and Hunt, 1994), corporate credibility – expertise (Newell and Goldsmith, 2001) attitude towards the firm (studies 1 and 2, Hagtvedt and Patrick, 2008) and purchase intention (study 2, Spears and Singh, 2004) were retrieved and adapted from existing literature, and treated as individual models to be validated through confirmatory factor analyses (CFA, see Tables 2 and 3) together with a co-variant one containing all possible variables' pair for each study. Original scales' items were kept for trust (α_{study 1} = 0.962, α_{study 2} = 0.983), attitude towards the firm (α_{study 1} = 0.958, α _study 2 = 0.983) and purchase intention (α _{study 2} = 0.975), while corporate credibility – expertise (α_{study 1} = 0.935, α _{study 2} = 0.944) was refined with the removal of one item in each study. The final instruments' items loaded standardised factor above the endorsed 0.70 limit, with the majority surpassing 0.90.

The models' fit was confirmed by the comparative (CFI), normed (NFI) and incremental (IFI) indices, which scored higher or very near the recommended 0.95 mark (Hu and Bentler, 1999), along with standardised root mean square residuals (SRMR) far below the advised 0.08 threshold. While chi-square per degrees of freedom (χ²/DF) values could not be computed for corporate credibility – expertise as it configured a saturated model with three items, the co-variant models for both studies returned acceptable (between 2 and 5) and good-fit (below 2) values for studies 1 and 2, respectively, demonstrating the instruments' efficiency.

Cronbach's alpha and composite reliability values for all scales revealed strong internal consistency in both studies, and their average variances extracted (AVE) showed that the majority of the instruments' variances were captured by them (and not by measurement errors). Furthermore, the comparison between scales' individual AVEs and the squared correlation of each scales' pair also implied discriminant validity. Heterotrait-monotrait ratios of correlations (HTMTs) were also assessed, loading below or very close to the recommended 0.850 limit (Henseler et al., 2015) for the corporate credibility – expertise/trust, and attitude towards the firm/corporate credibility – expertise pairs in both studies, for the attitude towards the firm/trust pair in study 1, and for the purchase intention/corporate credibility – expertise pair in study 2. While the attitude towards the firm/trust, purchase intention/trust and purchase intention/attitude towards the firm pairs in study 2 loaded above the threshold, values near or above the threshold were expected due to the intricate rapport between them, as argued in the previous section.

Given that all variables were collected from the same respondents, we assessed the potential influence of common method bias using a single-factor CFA. All measurement items were constrained to load onto one latent construct and the model fit was compared with the correlated multi-factor measurement model. The single-factor models for both studies demonstrated substantially poorer fit (χ²/DF = 1.882, CFI = 0.969, NFI = 0.936, IFI = 0.969, RMSEA = 0.096 for study 1, and χ²/DF = 1.680, CFI = 0.988, NFI = 0.970, IFI = 0.988, RMSEA = 0.062 for study 2) relative to the multi-factor models (χ²/DF = 7.652, CFI = 0.753, NFI = 0.728, IFI = 0.755, RMSEA = 0.235 for study 1, and χ²/DF = 9.720, CFI = 0.836, NFI = 0.821, IFI = 0.836, RMSEA = 0.198 for study 2), indicating that common method variance is unlikely to account for the observed covariance structure.

We conducted a one-way ANOVA test to assess for differences in each of the four roles' openness as a potential supply chain partner to the innovative green project (study 1, Table 4). Data suggest that sugar mill and truck manufacturer respondents scored the company proposing the innovative green project significantly higher on trust, corporate credibility – expertise, and attitude towards the firm than the ones from the fuel distributor scenarios. Furthermore, truck manufacturers also scored the company higher on corporate credibility – expertise and attitude towards the firm then their bank counterparts. No differences were found for banks and either sugar mill or truck manufacturers in trust, or for bank and sugar mill scenarios. Partial eta-squared (η2) was assessed to check the explanatory contribution of each factor, indicating medium-to-large explanatory strength effect within the specified models, suggesting that these factors account for an important variance proportion. Of particular relevance is the fact that these effect sizes indicate that the observed differences are not merely statistically significant, but substantively meaningful in explaining variation in openness across partner roles. The pattern consistently distinguishes expansion-oriented actors from those facing potential portfolio competition, revealing structurally differentiated propensities for collaboration. Thus, hypotheses H1a, H1b and H1c are partially confirmed.

The second study aimed to assess consumers' perceptions of companies who decided to either take part or not in green innovative projects as a supply chain partner (Table 5). Results show that, when assessing sugar mills, fuel distributors and truck manufacturers, potential consumers rate them statistically significantly higher when their decision to engage with the green innovative project is positive for all four constructs with strong evidence, meaning that they trust them more, perceive them as holding higher corporate credibility – expertise, have better attitude towards them, and also demonstrate higher purchase intention towards their products than when the decision for these potential partners is disclosed as negative, while differences were not detected for banks except week evidence found on attitude towards the firm. Furthermore, Cohen's d values indicate large to very large effects in the three conditions (i.e. sugar mills, fuel distributors and truck manufacturers), suggesting that participation decisions generate pronounced perceptual shifts rather than marginal attitudinal adjustments. These magnitudes signal practically meaningful reputational consequences associated with engagement in sustainable innovation projects. Hence, hypotheses H2a, H2b, H2c and H2d are also partially confirmed.

Still on study 2, a set of ANOVAs (Table 6) were also conducted to examine differences on consumers' perceptions on the potential partners who answered positively, and among the ones who answered negatively. While, as expected, no significant differences were found for the first ones, when such partners had negative responses to their potential participation in the project, strong differences were detected in consumers responses for trust and attitude towards the firm, scoring the sugar mill and fuel distributor significantly lower than the bank, and for corporate credibility – expertise and purchase intention, again penalising the sugar mill in comparison to the bank. No differences were found for truck manufacturers and another partner, and, once more, partial eta-squared (η2) showed medium-to-large explanatory strength effect within the specified models with statistically significant differences, again suggesting that such factors account for an important variance proportion. These findings indicate that reputational penalties for non-participation are not uniformly distributed across industries, but vary according to perceived strategic positioning within the supply chain. The asymmetry reinforces that stakeholder reactions are conditioned by role proximity and expected contribution to sustainable transition efforts. Hence, the third group of hypotheses – H3a, H3b, H3c, and H3d – is also partially confirmed.

Results from Study 1 indicate that respondents representing sugar mills and truck manufacturers reported higher trust levels than fuel distributors when evaluating the project, while no significant differences emerged in comparison with banks. This partially confirms H1a, as partners likely to experience business expansion (group 1) showed better or equivalent results relative to those for whom the project implied portfolio competition (fuel distributors and banks, group 2). A similar pattern appears for corporate credibility – expertise. Respondents linked to sugar mills and truck manufacturers (group 1) reported significantly higher perceptions than those associated with fuel distributors (group 2). Additionally, truck manufacturers were evaluated more positively than banks. These findings partially confirm H1b. The same tendency is observed for attitude towards the firm: truck manufacturers (group 1) were assessed more favourably than banks and fuel distributors (group 2), partially confirming H1c.

Observed differences among supply chain partners may stem from industry-specific risk perceptions, reflecting how sectors identify, measure and manage deviations from expected scenarios. Banking, for instance, relies heavily on risk monitoring, particularly in credit decisions. Such specialisation may foster conservatism, leading banks to reject the project under the proposed conditions. Distinct regulatory environments across industries may further shape risk perception and decision-making. Overall, the first study suggests that firms for which an innovative green project represents expansion are more receptive than those for which it holds less strategic relevance, which indicates that collaboration propensity is embedded in firms' positioning within the supply chain. This pattern is particularly relevant in the context of biomethane, whose production depends on stable organic feedstock and upgrading facilities. Such structural characteristics increase the importance of long-term alignment among supply chain actors.

Consistent with SET, exchanges become more likely as perceived value increases. Although the three hypotheses were only partially confirmed, results followed a consistent pattern as group 1 respondents were always more favourable than group 2, never the reverse. This supports the proposition that expansion-oriented partners display greater openness. Findings also reveal that the same energy transition project generates distinct perceptions depending on partners' roles. Sustainable business model innovation therefore requires coordination of divergent interests, reinforcing the relevance of multi-stakeholder governance. Public actors may facilitate alignment through tax incentives or tailored legislation, increasing structured cooperation. Such measures comply with TMT, which emphasises enabling conditions –alongside infrastructure and human capital – as drivers of systemic change. Competitive market mechanisms may also stimulate cooperation if value is distributed equitably. The study thus advances understanding of how organisational alignment influences sustainable business model innovation across industries with distinct interests.

The research also contributes theoretically by clarifying how SET can interpret probabilistic assessments of partner behaviour in emerging supply chains. Distinguishing between actors for whom the project represents expansion and those facing portfolio competition provides a mechanism for anticipating openness to collaboration. Integrating these relational dynamics with TMT connects micro-level exchange motivations to system-level transition processes, strengthening dialogue between the perspectives.

Scaling biomethane supply chains offers a concrete context for this integration. In this sense, multi-stakeholder governance becomes central, as alignment among partners motivates interaction (SET) and facilitates systemic change (TMT). The infrastructural coordination dilemma previously described – linking production sites, distribution networks and vehicle adaptation – reinforces the relevance of the alignment patterns identified in Study 1. Still, identifying a supply chain leader capable of uniting diverse interests may catalyse alignment. Practically, biomethane producers must share economic and strategic benefits. Moreover, engaging public officials to secure incentives can accelerate negotiations. Long-term partnerships, including equity exchanges, may also enhance cooperation. Such measures exemplify applied multi-stakeholder governance aimed at maximising coordinated transition outcomes.

The second group of hypotheses examined reputational effects of participating (or not) in the biomethane project. Results show that participation positively influenced end consumers' perceptions of trust for sugar mills and truck manufacturers (group 1), as well as fuel distributors (group 2), but not banks (group 2). The same pattern applied to corporate credibility – expertise, attitude towards the firm and purchase intention, partially confirming H2a, H2b, H2c and H2d. As in the first set of hypothesis, results were consistently positive for group 1 and only partially so for group 2, reinforcing the view that expansion-oriented firms are more sensitive to external evaluations. Industry-specific risk perceptions and regulatory differences remain plausible explanations. However, alternative interpretations – such as sectoral stereotypes regarding environmental engagement or socially desirable responding – cannot be excluded. Although random assignment and scenario standardisation reduce such risks, future field-based or behavioural research could further clarify these effects.

Regulatory and institutional environments also vary across regions, particularly between Western economies and emerging markets where biomethane production is expanding. Incorporating references from contexts such as China and Brazil highlights this diversity and underscores the importance of analysing sustainable business model innovation beyond fully Western regulatory assumptions. Such variation is especially relevant in energy transition logistics, where institutional conditions directly shape feasibility, risk perception and stakeholder alignment.

Unlike earlier findings, no internal variation appeared within group 2, as fuel distributors mirrored group 1's positive pattern, whereas banks showed no perceptual difference between participation and refusal. This may reflect a mature understanding of banking as broadly credit-oriented rather than directly linked to environmental initiatives. By contrast, fuel distributors' activities are closely connected to biomethane production and distribution, explaining greater reputational sensitivity. Although individual hypotheses were only partially confirmed, assessing reputational impacts offers insight into motivations for engaging in sustainable business model innovation. Managers often prioritise financial metrics, especially in B2B contexts, underestimating intangible reputational gains. Demonstrating such gains supports more comprehensive project evaluation and may increase acceptance rates. Reputational considerations also strengthen multi-stakeholder governance by clarifying shared benefits and fostering alignment.

The third hypothesis group proposed that non-participation would harm group 1 partners more than group 2. For trust, banks (group 2) were less penalised than sugar mills (group 1), partially confirming H3a. Similar patterns for corporate credibility – expertise and attitude towards the firm partially confirmed H3b and H3c, while purchase intention followed the same direction without statistical strength. Overall, aggregate evidence suggests group 1 partners face greater reputational losses when declining participation. Industry-specific risk perceptions and regulatory contexts may again explain partial confirmations.

Beyond replacing diesel in road transport, biomethane has additional applications. It serves as input for Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs), renewable biofuels derived from forestry and agricultural waste, ethanol, oils and greases, improving air transport's environmental performance (Unica, 2026). Its use in urban buses and waste collection also supports logistics (Ramalho et al., 2022). Currently, however, most biogas is used for heating (27%) and electricity generation (64%), with installed capacity nearing 20 Gigawatts in countries such as Germany, the United States, the United Kingdom, China and Italy (International Energy Agency, 2023), illustrating that biomethane competes with other energy uses, which contextualises the strategic hesitation observed among certain supply chain actors. This indicates significant growth potential for biomethane in logistics, particularly road transport. This context clarifies sugar mills' greater inclination to participate. Many already generate electricity from sugarcane bagasse, possess relevant know-how and rely heavily on road transport. Expanding into biomethane can increase capacity and create export opportunities, particularly amid energy restrictions affecting major producers such as Russia. For truck manufacturers, potential sales growth – especially linked to sugar mills' logistics – provides a clear incentive.

This research examined the motivations influencing supply chain partners' participation in environmentally constructive innovation projects, focusing on large-scale biomethane production as a diesel substitute in road transportation. Project feasibility depends on coordinated participation among five actors (i.e. the focal entrepreneurial firm, a bank, a raw material supplier (sugar mill), a fuel distributor and a truck manufacturer). Partners were grouped according to whether the project implied business expansion (group 1, sugar mill and truck manufacturer) or potential competition with existing portfolios (group 2, bank and fuel distributor).

Grounded in SET and TMT, 11 hypotheses tested partner perceptions upon project presentation (Study 1) and consumer reactions to acceptance or refusal (Studies 2 and 3), using trust, corporate credibility – expertise, attitude towards the firm and purchase intention as dependent variables. Overall, firms perceiving expansion opportunities (group 1) responded more positively and appeared more sensitive to reputational evaluations, as consumers expected stronger engagement from those for whom the project held greater strategic significance.

The findings align with SET, confirming that perceived relational value increases openness to collaboration. Social interaction, represented here by project adherence, becomes more likely when actors expect benefits unavailable otherwise. Highlighting growth potential thus increases group 1 firms' participation propensity. Beyond confirmation, the study advances SET by applying it to probabilistic assessments of future-oriented collaboration decisions within complex supply chain formation processes. By modelling how perceived expansion opportunities and competitive trade-offs shape relational openness, the research introduces a structured lens for anticipating partner alignment in sustainable business model innovation. Rather than merely applying existing theory to a new empirical context, the study strengthens its operational relevance in energy transition logistics, where inter-organisational coordination is a precondition for systemic change.

Contributions to TMT are also meaningful. By demonstrating that participation depends on whether the project expands or competes with a firm's existing business, the study clarifies how divergent interests can be aligned around shared transition objectives, thereby reinforcing debates on multi-stakeholder governance. Methodologically, the use of factorial scenario-based behavioural experiments to analyse supply chain genesis represents an additional contribution. While sustainable business model research frequently relies on case-based or conceptual approaches, the experimental design adopted here enables a controlled examination of relational and reputational drivers in early-stage network formation.

Managerially, the study's scenarios were inspired by a real biomethane supply chain initiative, enhancing practical relevance. Although not a case study, its grounding in tangible developments ensures close alignment with real-world decision-making. The findings provide guidance for entrepreneurs seeking to build complex inter-organisational networks, especially where actors hold distinct interests. Those developing fossil fuel alternatives from agricultural waste, particularly biomethane, may find parallels. More broadly, the results support innovators aiming to structure collaborative networks essential for sustainable business model implementation.

Within the objective of encouraging the participation of supply chain partners in similar projects, concrete actions can be proposed to increase the likelihood of adherence from hesitant actors. In the case of banks, the development and adoption of financial products linked to the environmental performance of clients (i.e. green bonds) can favour engagement, with support for the development of biomethane serving as collateral for such credit instruments. In addition to composing the structuring of such instruments (e.g. terms, interest rates, re-payment frequency), the connection with the client's environmental performance can attract investors, facilitating the commercialisation of the debt. The architecture of public–private partnerships can also serve as an element of attraction for financial agents, with the presence of the State potentially rebalancing the perceived risk-return relationship (i.e. significantly lower default risk depending on the type of credit contract established and the public guarantees offered). The risk perception of fuel distributors could also be rebalanced by outlining phased rollout plans so that these actors can incorporate the commercialisation of biomethane in a phased manner, avoiding immediate conflicts with their business models. This option should increase their likelihood of participation.

Entrepreneurs seeking to align diverse actors may adopt equity exchange strategies, encouraging supply chain partners to become shareholders in new ventures. Even modest equity participation can shift partners from suppliers to co-owners, improving expected returns and positively influencing risk perception. Policymakers also play a crucial role. Through regulatory support and tax incentives for large-scale biomethane production, public agents can reinforce engagement while advancing broader environmental objectives. The findings highlight the need to reduce resistance among actors who perceive the new model as competitive with their current portfolios – particularly fuel distributors, whose lower propensity to participate may threaten project feasibility. To mitigate this, entrepreneurs should clearly communicate the full range of benefits, including reputational gains supported by the study's results. Framing participation within a broader energy transition narrative and supporting distributors in embracing renewable opportunities may further encourage alignment.

Demonstrating market potential, regulatory fluency and structured value-sharing mechanisms can strengthen this approach. Mutual investments, share exchanges or purchase options may incentivise distributors by granting access not only to operational revenues but also to potential capital appreciation. Equity participation can also provide strategic influence, reducing resistance through enhanced control and shared governance. A similar but adapted strategy may attract banks. Given their distance from biomethane's operational dynamics, financial returns should be emphasised. Instruments such as convertible debentures – allowing debt to be converted into equity – offer downside protection with upside potential, fostering long-term partnerships and more favourable project evaluation. Combined with value-sharing strategies for distributors, such measures may facilitate multi-stakeholder governance led by the focal firm.

Beyond biomethane, these insights extend to other innovative business models. Consistent with SET assumptions, green projects are particularly appealing to firms perceiving growth opportunities. Where projects imply competitive trade-offs, stronger alignment efforts are required. Due to these factors and others discussed throughout the study, the answer to the three research questions proposed – (1) Does the perception of an innovative green project influence the propensity of potential partners to join?; (2) Does (non)participation in an innovative green project have a significant impact on reputation?; and (3) Do the potential reputational impacts differ for the two groups of companies (i.e. opportunity for expansion of current business, group 1 or a competitor of current business portfolio, group 2)? – is positive, with the evidence collected here allowing us to take this position.

All research faces limitations, and this study is no exception. The topic's complexity makes it impossible to capture every nuance, requiring a focus on core issues that can serve as a foundation for future inquiry. The gap between intricate real-world dynamics and academic modelling thus represents an opportunity for further development. In particular, deeper examination of partner motivations and interactions would benefit from qualitative approaches such as case studies and ethnographies. Methodological choices also impose constraints. Although scenario-based experiments effectively capture perceptions, emotions and attitudes, they lack the flexibility of interviews.

Moreover, the use of hypothetical vignettes may limit ecological validity, particularly in capital-intensive contexts where strategic decisions involve substantial financial exposure and long-term relational commitments. Participants do not confront real financial, reputational or relational consequences, and thus their responses may not fully mirror the nature of actual inter-organisational decision-making in emerging supply chains. Moreover, although the sample was restricted to professionals with leadership experience in relevant industries, behavioural experiments cannot fully reproduce the decision-making dynamics of senior executives operating in capital-intensive contexts. Future research could complement these findings through longitudinal case studies, field-based investigations involving decision-makers or the analysis of partnership formation processes over time, thereby strengthening the connection between experimental insights and lived organisational practice. Additionally, as the study relies on perceptual measures, the influence of unobserved attitudinal predispositions or social desirability effects cannot be entirely excluded.

The exclusive use of a US-based sample further limits international applicability. While respondents confirmed the realism of the scenarios, role-playing experiments may introduce biases, as participants do not confront actual decisions. Future studies should incorporate discussions of lived experiences, broaden samples internationally and replicate findings with larger datasets to strengthen generalisability. Future research should explore psychological dimensions related to attracting and retaining partners in sustainable business models. Understanding how supply chain actors perceive relational value and how initial perceptions influence collaboration propensity could connect individual psychology to debates on value creation and value capture. In particular, examining the interplay between financial and reputational incentives may clarify how intangible assets such as reputation can translate into tangible financial outcomes.

Further inquiry should also assess the effectiveness of value-sharing strategies in strengthening multi-stakeholder governance. Aligning stakeholders around shared value may be critical for building resilient supply networks, especially when regulatory environments vary across countries and regions. Comparative regulatory analysis could therefore deepen understanding of governance conditions that facilitate sustainable innovation. Conceptually, alternative theoretical lenses may enrich future work. The Relational View (Dyer and Singh, 1998) offers insight into value creation and competitive advantage within inter-organisational relationships, complementing SET's focus on exchange motivations. Institutional theory may also productively dialogue with TMT, particularly regarding how regulatory and normative pressures shape collaborative behaviour in sustainability-driven transitions.

We thank the Universidad de Sevilla for funding the open access publication of this article.